PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Olympics men's basketball quarterfinals set: USA faces Brazil, France plays Canada

VILLENEUVE-D'ASCQ,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center France – Either France or Canada will be out of medal contention after the Tuesday men’s basketball quarterfinal games at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Just brutal. Following group play and the ensuing draw for the quarterfinals, the two teams will play each other immediately in the knockout stage. The loser will exit the Olympics incredibly disappointed.

The top two teams from the three groups plus the next two best third-place teams based on point-differential advanced.

The quarterfinal matchups on Tuesday are:

• Germany-Greece, 5 a.m. ET
• Serbia-Australia, 8:30 a.m. ET
• Canada-France, noon ET
• USA-Brazil, 3:30 p.m. ET

2024 Olympic medals: Who is leading the medal count? Follow along as we track the medals for every sport.

The U.S. caught a break, too. The USA-Brazil winner plays the Serbia-Australia winner, meaning the U.S. wouldn’t have to face Germany, Canada or France until the gold-medal game. 

It’s a formidable eight filled with NBA All-Stars and MVPs, and it went down to the final game of group play between Serbia and South Sudan to determine the quarterfinalists.

2024 Olympic medals: Who is leading the medal count? Follow along as we track the medals for every sport.

Playing in its first Olympics in men’s basketball, South Sudan just missed a spot in the quarterfinals, losing to Serbia 96-85. Had South Sudan lost by just a point, it would have made the round of eight.

A closer look at the matchups:

USA-Brazil

The U.S. was the top overall finisher at 3-0 at a plus-64 point-differential in Group C. Though Greece was the second-best third-place team, FIBA rules state that two teams from the same group cannot play in the quarterfinals, so that prevented a Germany-Brazil matchup because both were in Group B.

The U.S. did its job in group play, wasn’t really challenged and had several players contribute offensively. They were sloppy with turnovers and gave up offensive rebounds, and those are areas coach Steve Kerr wants to clean up. Anthony Edwards (16.3 points per game) and Kevin Durant (16 ppg) are the top scorers. LeBron James averaged 14.3 points, 7.3 assists and 6.7 rebounds in group play.

Brazil beat Japan and lost to Germany and France in Group B. Vitor Benite, Raul Neto, Marcelinho Huertas and Bruno Caboclo are Brazil’s top players.

Germany-Greece

Giannis Antetokounmpo made it to the knockout stage, and he’s thrilled about the opportunity. But Germany is playing as well as any team in this event. Germany, the 2023 FIBA World Cup champion, clobbered France for the top spot in Group B and has experience and continuity with Franz Wagner (21.7 ppg), Mo Wagner, Dennis Schröder (19.7 ppg, 9.0 assists per game), Daniel Theis and Isaac Bonga. Greece had just one victory (vs. Australia) in Group A but that was enough. Antetokounmpo averaged 27 points on 68.9% shooting in three games.

Canada-France

So much is at stake in this game as both teams came to the Olympics with medal expectations. Canada has been fantastic – 3-0 in Group A – led by RJ Barrett (21.0 ppg), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (19.0 ppg) and Dillon Brooks (14.3 ppg). Can France’s guards handle Canada’s guards? France finished 2-1, but it was an up-and-down effort. It almost lost to Japan (94-90), handled Brazil and was routed by Germany. Yes, France has experience (Nic Batum, Rudy Gobert, Evan Fournier) and the young star (Victor Wembanyama and his 17.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.7 steals and 2.0 blocks per game), but it hasn’t put together a complete performance.

Serbia-Australia

Australia finished second in Group A with just one victory – against Spain – but it lost to Canada 93-83 and Greece 77-71. It is competitive with several NBA players, including Josh Giddey (15.0 ppg), Patty Mills, Jock Landale (17.7 ppg), Dante Exum and Dyson Daniels. Serbia is led by Nikola Jokic (18.7 ppg, 11.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists per game), Bogdan Bogdanovic (19 ppg) and a cast of high-level players who star in Europe. Serbia earned silver at the 2023 World Cup, and it is capable of medaling in Paris. Both teams are well-coached.

Follow NBA reporter Jeff Zillgitt on social media @JeffZillgitt

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